In the global pharmaceutical industry, there is probably no sector like weight loss drug development where only two giants are competing. The number of other players entering the market is not only insufficient to form a complete game, but even a three-way competition is still a future prospect.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk control the most powerful brands, the most mature supply systems, and the most complete pace of indication expansion. Eli Lilly's telposide and Novo Nordisk's semaglutide are aggressively expanding their market share in the obesity market, which is touted as having a potential of $100 billion. Although competitors are vying for dominance in terms of drug modalities, targets, and mechanisms, products that can truly threaten telposide and semaglutide in the European and American markets remain largely untapped. Many pharmaceutical giants can only lament, "I regret that I don't have this drug," when looking at their own pipelines.

The more stable the duopoly becomes, the more anticipated the emergence of a third pole becomes. The market needs a third pillar that can effectively balance supply, price, and innovation pace, as well as a systemic capability that can provide differentiated answers in the next stage of competition.

The "Longzhong Plan for Weight Loss," this third-pole force that "led the troops of Yizhou out of Qin Chuan," needs its later-stage assets to be able to quickly enter large-scale clinical trials, have a continuous reserve of oral and combination therapies, a commercialization system that can undertake chronic disease management, and an early target supply that can support the iteration of the next generation of mechanisms. From this perspective, Pfizer is the "chosen one" closest to playing this role .

01
Acquires Sciwind's approved assets, entering the mainstream of weight-loss drugs.

On February 24, Pfizer and Hangzhou Sciwind Biosciences announced a collaboration: Pfizer acquired exclusive commercialization rights for Ecnoglutide in mainland China, while Sciwind is eligible to receive up to $495 million in payments, comprising an upfront payment and regulatory and sales-related milestone payments. Sciwind retains its marketing authorization holder status and will continue to be responsible for research, registration, manufacturing, and supply. Ecnoglutide is approved by the NMPA for the treatment of type 2 diabetes in adults in January 2026, and its weight management indication is currently under review.

Ecnoglutide is a cAMP-biased GLP-1 receptor agonist administered subcutaneously once weekly. Ecnoglutide exhibits strong cAMP signaling activation in vitro, while showing very weak promotion of GLP-1 receptor endocytosis, thus forming a cAMP-biased signaling signature. Public information released by Sciwind shows that the study was conducted at 36 centers in China, randomly enrolling 664 overweight or obese adults. At 48 weeks, the highest-dose Ecnoglutide group experienced an average weight loss of 15.4%, while the placebo-corrected weight loss was 15.1%, with 92.8% of participants achieving at least a 5% weight loss.

Through this deal, Pfizer has acquired a commercial pipeline in China that can be launched immediately. With exclusive commercialization rights in mainland China, Pfizer can quickly introduce its products to the diabetes market and, after making progress in weight management, expand to the weight loss population. For Pfizer, which is rebuilding its obesity pipeline, the value of this pipeline lies in bringing revenue and market presence forward, shortening the uncertain window of waiting for later asset valuations and approvals.

This transaction extends Pfizer's obesity strategy from a research-centric asset portfolio to a market-centric implementation system. Globally, Pfizer uses acquisitions and licensing to build core late-stage assets and oral drug pipelines. This Chinese deal provides a large-scale market entry point, allowing its metabolic drug commercialization team to validate pricing strategies, channel coverage, patient management, and long-term adherence maintenance in a real-world environment. Ecnoglutide's Phase III weight loss readings and weekly dosing characteristics give it the foundation to directly compete with existing GLP-1 products in the Chinese market, granting Pfizer the qualification and operational space to enter the competition.

This seemingly regional commercial collaboration perfectly encapsulates the key competitive elements of the third pole in the obesity drug market. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have shifted the competition in obesity drugs from single-product races to platform competition. For newcomers to establish a long-term position, they need four capabilities simultaneously: a pipeline of late-stage core assets capable of reaching large-scale outcomes and long-term follow-up; sustainable R&D reserves for oral and combination therapies; a commercialization system capable of supporting continuous management of large-scale population use; and an upstream target supply capable of continuously generating next-generation mechanisms. Pfizer's actions over the past year have unfolded along these four parallel lines, with a clear portfolio structure and an inherent division of labor between transactions.

Before "borrowing Jingzhou" (a metaphor for a strategic move), Pfizer had been striving to establish its own foothold. Early on, Pfizer attempted to develop its own oral GLP-1 drug for obesity, but safety risks ultimately proved insurmountable . Pfizer's self-developed oral small-molecule GLP-1 candidates, lotiglipron and danuglipron, both failed between 2023 and 2025 due to safety and tolerability issues. It was precisely in this seemingly hopeless situation that Pfizer chose the "borrowing a hen to lay eggs" approach to quickly enter the mainstream of weight-loss drugs.

02
The multi-billion dollar acquisition of Metsera marks the beginning of a robust weight-loss drug pipeline.

In November 2025, after many twists and turns, Pfizer finally completed the acquisition of Metsera for a total consideration of $10 billion. The payment was triggered by three clinical and regulatory milestones, including the initiation of Phase III trials for the combination of MET-097i and MET-233i, FDA approval of monthly dosing of MET-097i as a single drug, and FDA approval of the monthly dosing combination of MET-097i and MET-233i.

Metsera's lead candidate, MET-097i , is a GLP-1 receptor agonist capable of monthly dosing, with the differentiation fulcrum lying in the dosing interval. Metsera's Phase 2b VESPER-1 results, disclosed in September 2025, showed a 14.1% weight loss at 28 weeks. Following the acquisition, Pfizer incorporated the asset into its pipeline and recoded it. PF-3944 (formerly MET-097i) observed a maximum weight loss of 12.3% in an interim study involving a switch from weekly subcutaneous injections to monthly dosing; weight loss continued after the switch, extending to week 28, with follow-up planned to week 64.

Metsera's portfolio extends beyond the GLP-1 drug PF-3944. MET-233i is a monthly-delivered amylin analogue that can be developed as monotherapy or in combination with MET-097i . It also includes two oral GLP-1 candidates expected to enter clinical trials soon, as well as an earlier-stage nutritional hormone program.

03
A two-pronged approach combining delivery methods and combination therapy: YP05002

In addition to acquiring Metsera to obtain core assets in the later stages, Pfizer has also incorporated oral drugs and combination therapies into its development plans through licensing agreements .

On December 9, 2025, Pfizer entered into an exclusive collaboration and licensing agreement with YaoPharma, acquiring the global rights to the small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist YP05002. The terms include an upfront payment of $150 million and up to $1.935 billion in development, registration, and commercialization milestones, with tiered royalties.

More noteworthy is the description of the subsequent R&D roadmap in the announcement: Pfizer plans to evaluate the combination of YP05002 with its GIP receptor antagonist PF-07976016 and other projects. This means that Pfizer is expanding its obesity drug strategy from a single GLP-1 pathway to a framework of combined mechanisms. Oral administration determines the upper limit of the target population and ease of use, while combination therapy determines the technological scope for efficacy boundaries, tolerability management, and body composition management. For latecomers, the significance of this kind of reserve lies in incorporating the growth and risk variables of the next few years into the same asset portfolio in advance, avoiding being caught off guard if the core assets fluctuate.

04
Where can so many medicines be found? Only by opening blind boxes at the source.

For the third pole to establish itself firmly, it needs to address the supply of mechanisms several years from now. On January 8, 2026, Gordian Bio announced a non-exclusive research collaboration with Pfizer, aiming to discover new targets for obesity. The core of the collaboration is to leverage Gordian's large-scale in vivo screening capabilities to prioritize targets.

The value of this type of collaboration lies in the characteristics of obesity as a systemic disease: there is a strong coupling between adipose tissue, immune inflammation, metabolic pathways, and neural regulation, and in vitro models have limited coverage of complex physiological environments. In vivo large-scale screening can improve the strength of early target validation, provide a candidate pool for combination and differentiated mechanisms, and reduce the time cost caused by directional misjudgments. For latecomers, the construction of the upstream toolchain determines the continuity of subsequent product supply and whether the third-tier player can extend from one round of asset catching up to multiple rounds of product iteration.

05
Outlook

Among the many large pharmaceutical companies behind Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, Pfizer's current portfolio makes it the most qualified to become a third major player. The acquisition of Metsera provides it with a core late-stage asset in its pipeline, and the monthly dosing approach, if it maintains a weight gain curve over longer follow-ups, is a strong point. YP05002 provides a reserve for the oral route, and once combination therapies generate gain data, it will provide a differentiating asset for Pfizer's weight-loss drug portfolio. Ecnoglutide has established a near-term commercialization foothold in China, and as the review process, net pricing and payment pathways, and supply stability all progress simultaneously, its sales volume curve has the potential to maintain a continuous upward trend.

The convergence of these three lines creates a tempo advantage: the leader's advantage lies in its existing products and supply chain, while Pfizer's advantage is more likely to be reflected in its ability to expand and iterate its portfolio in the next phase. If subsequent readings and market execution proceed as currently achievable, the title of "third pole" may be well-deserved.