Zhifei BiologicalIt delivered its worst third-quarter report in the past decade.

 

　　According to its third-quarter report, in the first three quarters of 2025, Zhifei Biological Products achieved revenue of 7.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.53%, and net profit of -1.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 156.86%.

 

　　The reason for the poor performance is straightforward—market sales fell short of expectations. On October 30th, Jiemian News sent an interview request to Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. , but had not received a response by the time of publication.

 

 

　　In the first three quarters of 2025, Zhifei Biological's accounts receivable and inventory remained high. During the period, these two figures were RMB 12.814 billion and RMB 20.246 billion, respectively, accounting for 27.62% and 43.64% of total assets.

 

　　High accounts receivable indicate that Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. has not been able to receive payments from disease control centers in various regions in a timely manner; high inventory data indicates that the company's vaccine products have limited demand and weak sales. If the aforementioned two data points are not controlled in a timely manner, the company is prone to financial crisis should large amounts of bad debts occur or inventory impairment is required due to factors such as expired vaccine products.

 

　　This reflects the failure of the business model of "making money while lying down" by distributing popular overseas vaccines in the domestic market.

 

　　As MerckZhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. enjoyed nearly a decade of easy profits as the exclusive distributor of HPV vaccines in China, but now that advantage has been exhausted.

 

Since becoming the exclusive distributor of Merck's HPV vaccine in China 　　in 2017 , Zhifei Biological's revenue has climbed from 446 million yuan in 2016 to 52.918 billion yuan in 2023. Meanwhile, during this period, due to insufficient production capacity and age restrictions for vaccination, the HPV vaccine has consistently been in short supply.

 

　　However, with the significant increase in production capacity and the expansion of the vaccination population in 2023, the market supply and demand began to ease, and the popularity of HPV vaccines cooled down accordingly.

 

　　Now, the domestic HPV vaccine market is nearing saturation. Merck CEO Robert M. Davis mentioned in the 2023 financial report that there are still about 120 to 130 million urban women in China who are eligible for vaccination.

 

　　The monopoly of imported 9-valent HPV vaccines will also be broken in 2025. In June 2025, Wantai Biological...China's domestically produced 9-valent HPV vaccine (trade name: Xinkening 9) has been approved for marketing by the National Medical Products Administration, becoming the first domestically produced 9-valent product. It will directly compete with the imported Merck vaccine distributed by Zhifei Biological Products.

 

　　In addition, the HPV vaccine has been included in the national immunization program. Starting from November 10, 2025, local authorities will organize the provision of two doses of bivalent HPV vaccine (6 months apart) free of charge to girls who are 13 years of age or older and were born after November 10, 2011.

 

　　Therefore, Zhifei Biological Products and Merck also negotiated and adjusted the procurement and supply schedule of HPV vaccines, and continued to conduct demand assessments to cope with the upcoming intense market changes. According to the semi-annual report, in the first half of 2025, 4.2388 million doses of the nine-valent HPV vaccine were released, a year-on-year decrease of 76.8%; the number of quadrivalent HPV vaccines released was 0.

 

 

　　Furthermore, the inactivated hepatitis A vaccine distributed by Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. was officially withdrawn from the Chinese market in the third quarter of this year. On October 15, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" and the "Measures for Drug Registration Management," the National Medical Products Administration decided to cancel the registration of Merck's inactivated hepatitis A vaccine (human diploid cell).

 

　　Following its partnership with GlaxoSmithKline to distribute HPV vaccines, Zhifei Biological Products has now partnered with...GSK partnered with GSK to acquire the distribution rights for the shingles vaccine, hoping to replicate the success of the HPV vaccine, but they were unsuccessful.

 

　　Similar to Merck's HPV vaccine, GlaxoSmithKline 's shingles vaccine Shingrix is ​​among the top ten best-selling products globally. The vaccine was approved in the United States in 2017 and introduced to China in June 2020.

 

　　Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. is currently striving to transform from a distributor into an innovative enterprise. Addressing investor concerns about this transformation, Zhifei stated during a roadshow on September 25th that the company has established three major R&D and production bases in Beijing, Anhui, and Chongqing, as well as an innovation incubation center, continuously focusing on vaccines and tuberculosis-related biological products.Enhance independent innovation capabilities in fields such as GLP1 analogs.

 

　　However, judging from the current product portfolio, Zhifei Biological's self-developed capabilities have not been proven by the market.

 

　　For example, the 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine, which has only been on the market for two years, has not received any batch release approvals in the first half of 2025 and is basically in a "laid-off" state.

 

　　The willingness to receive the 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine has remained low, so it has mainly relied on local government incentive policies to promote it. Shanghai launched a program to provide free 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines to people aged 60 and above, and in recent years, cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen have followed suit.

 

　　However, in May of this year, the Jiangsu Provincial Public Resources Trading Center announced the procurement results for the 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine in the region: Beijing Sinovac Biotech...And Yuxi Watson BioThey won the bids at the "floor price" of 25 yuan per unit, securing purchase volumes of 60,000 and 29,400 units respectively.

 

　　It's important to know that the 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine is a self-funded vaccine, typically costing around 200 yuan per dose. Now, competitors are driving down the price directly in the bidding market, making it difficult for Zhifei Biological's 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine to compete.

 

　　In addition, Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. only received approval for its quadrivalent influenza vaccine in March of this year.Vaccines have also been forced into a price war, resulting in limited product scale and market share.

 

Sinopharm Group was the first to reduce the price of its quadrivalent influenza split vaccine 　　as early as May 2024. The quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccines produced by Sinopharm's Changchun Institute, Wuhan Institute, and Shanghai Institute all saw price reductions, with the winning bid price dropping from 128 yuan/dose to 88 yuan/dose. Hualan Vaccine...Beijing Sinovac, JindikeVaccine manufacturers were "forced" into the fray. To seize market share, companies proactively lowered vaccine prices, bringing winning bids to historic lows.

 

　　Although Zhifei Biological has a number of pipelines in reserve, these have not contributed much to its recent performance.

 

　　According to the semi-annual report, freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (human diploid cell), 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, and quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine are in the market review stage; five products, including flexneri sonnei dysentery bivalent conjugate vaccine, quadrivalent recombinant norovirus vaccine, and component DPT vaccine, are in Phase III clinical trials.

 

　　Mergers and acquisitions have become a quick and effective option. On March 21, Zhifei Biological announced a cash investment of RMB 593 million in Chen'an Biological, acquiring a 51% stake and achieving controlling ownership. Chen'an Biological is a biotechnology company with a pipeline covering GLP-1 analogs, insulin analogs, and oral formulations.

 

　　While GLP-1 drugs are hailed as the most explosive market in the global pharmaceutical industry, in China, it may still be a red ocean. Moreover, Zhifei Biological Products is not in a leading position in this field.

 

　　According to statistics compiled by Jiemian News, as of July 2025, there are 21 GLP-1 drugs available for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, overweight, or obesity (different indications are counted separately).

 

　　According to statistics from Jiemian News, taking type 2 diabetes as an example, as of July 2025, 13 GLP-1 drug candidates have had their NDAs accepted by the National Medical Products Administration, and another 35 are undergoing Phase III clinical trials in China.

 

　　According to statistics from Jiemian News, as of July 2025, there are approximately 20 GLP-1 receptor agonists in clinical development for the treatment of overweight or obesity.

 

In addition, two other GLP-1/GCG dual receptor agonists are under development in China: PB-718 from PegBio (in Phase I clinical trials) and Survodutide from Boehringer Ingelheim (in Phase III clinical trials). Innovent Biologics ' GLP-1/GCG dual receptor agonist, Mastodide injection, has already been approved for marketing.

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By editor