In 2026, the Danish pharmaceutical giantNovo NordiskThestar weight loss drug semaglutide core molecule patent is about to expire in China, at which time the drug will face a lot of competition from Chinese generics. In this context,Novo NordiskIt is actively promoting the global launch process of oral semaglutide weight loss drugs.
recentlyNovo NordiskA recent Phase 3 clinical trial published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) evaluated the efficacy and safety of an investigational once-daily oral semaglutide tablet (25mg tablet). The results showed that at 64 weeks of medication, the patients in the oral semaglutide tablets 25mg group achieved an average weight loss of 16.6%, and more than one-third (34.4%) of the patients achieved a weight loss of 20% or more, and the weight loss effect was comparable to that of semaglutide injection.
Novo Nordisk has submitted a new drug application to the US FDA in February this year for once-daily semaglutide 25mg tablets. The company expects the FDA to complete approval by the end of this year, when the drug is also expected to become the world's first GLP-1 oral tablet approved for weight loss. Novo Nordisk also said that if approved by the FDA, semaglutide oral tablets will be manufactured in the United States.
The listing of oral semaglutide will help Novo Nordisk capture the market opportunity of oral weight loss drugs. In the global market, the company faces not only its main competitorsLillyThere are also challenges from new market players to seize market share. Recently, Roche has also made new breakthroughs in the field of weight loss drugs.
At a recent investor conference in London, Roche publicly explained why the company believes it can benefit from Novo Nordisk andLillySeize market share in your hands. Roche plans to promote the launch of a number of weight loss drug products by 2030, and predicts that three of them may become large products with annual sales of more than $1 billion.
In the Chinese market, local Chinese biopharmaceutical companiesInnovent BiologicsIt is also vigorously promoting the commercialization of the GLP-1 weight loss drug Marsdutide. Analysts expect the Chinese weight loss drug market to be worth billions of dollars in the coming years.
Research companiesmorning star(MorningStar) predicts that Marsdutide will be this yearInnovent BiologicsIt contributed more than 600 million yuan (about $84.4 million) in sales and is expected to reach a peak sales of 3.5 billion yuan in 2029, which means that the weight loss drug will beInnovent BiologicsContribute 20% of total revenue. Since the beginning of this year, Innovent Biotech's stock price has risen by about 155%, while Novo Nordisk's stock price has fallen by 38%.LillyThe company's stock price fell nearly 3%.
morning starIt is also predicted that Novo Nordisk's semaglutide weight loss drug sales in China are estimated to be about DKK 2.2 billion (about US$346 million) this year, and it is expected to increase by another 30% in 2026. However, after that, the market share of semaglutide will decline due to the launch of a large number of Chinese generic drugs. presentlyCSPC Pharmaceutical Group, HangzhouNine sources of genesand other companies are developing generic semaglutide drugs.
In the view of some analysts, Chinese weight loss drug manufacturers such as Innovent Biotech are more aware of the needs of Chinese consumers, and are also more familiar with the channels and business models of China's Internet pharmaceutical sales.
According to the first financial reporter, in the past few months, in order to promote the sales of Marsdutide, in addition to public hospital channels, Innovent Biotech has invested a lot of resources and actively expanded cooperation with online platforms, retail pharmacies, private hospitals and clinics.
These weight loss drugs are still expensive self-prescription drugs in China and are not covered by national health insurance. according toGoldmanA recent report showed that Novo Nordisk's semaglutide cost about $400 a month of treatment and Eli Lilly's tirpotide was about $900 at the beginning of the market, based on the highest dose of weekly injections of weight loss drugs available in China. Innovent Biotech said that the cost of treatment for Marsdutide per month is 2,920 yuan (about $411).
Qu Shen, chief physician of the Endocrinology and Metabolism Center of Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, told the first financial reporter: "These drugs will be priced higher when they are first launched, but as more similar drugs are approved for marketing, the price will drop immediately." ”
When asked about the current prescription volume of several weight loss drugs on the market in China, Professor Ji Linong, director of the Department of Endocrinology at Peking University People's Hospital, said that the prescription volume is related to the time of launch of each drug.
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