Novo Nordisk recently released its 2024 financial report. During the reporting period, Novo Nordisk achieved revenue of 290.403 billion Danish kroner (approximately $42.137 billion, calculated at 1 Danish kroner = $0.1451, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 25%; net profit was 100.988 billion Danish kroner (approximately $14.653 billion), a year-on-year increase of 21%. The total annual revenue of its three semaglutide products was 201.849 billion Danish kroner (approximately $29.288 billion), a year-on-year increase of nearly 40%, approaching the sales of Merck's "king of medicine" K drug (pembrolizumab) of $29.486 billion in 2024.

In 2024, Novo Nordisk's diabetes and obesity treatment sales achieved revenue of 271.764 billion Danish kroner (about 39.433 billion U.S. dollars), a year-on-year increase of 26%. The growth was mainly driven by the GLP-1 diabetes treatment field and the obesity treatment field. Among them, the sales of GLP-1 diabetes treatment field increased by 21% in Danish kroner, and the sales of obesity treatment field increased by 56% to 65.1 billion Danish kroner (about 9.446 billion U.S. dollars). In addition, the sales of rare diseases were 18.639 billion Danish kroner (about 2.705 billion U.S. dollars), a year-on-year increase of 9%. Insulin products also brought Novo Nordisk 55.373 billion Danish kroner (about 8.035 billion U.S. dollars) in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. Novo Nordisk expects the company's sales growth in 2025 to be 16%-24%, and the operating profit growth is expected to be 19%-27% (calculated at a fixed exchange rate CER).

Semaglutide is Novo Nordisk's original research flagship product. Especially since it was approved for weight loss indications, it has become the world's best-selling weight loss drug and is seen as a rising "dark horse" in the industry. Novo Nordisk's semaglutide has three products, namely Rybelsus (oral hypoglycemic version of semaglutide), Ozempic (hypoglycemic version of semaglutide injection), and Wegovy (weight loss version of semaglutide injection). In 2024, Ozempic achieved revenue of 120.342 billion Danish kroner (about 17.462 billion US dollars) in the global market, a year-on-year increase of 26%; Rybelsus achieved revenue of 23.301 billion Danish kroner (about 3.381 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 24%; Wegovy achieved revenue of 58.206 billion Danish kroner (about 8.446 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 86%. Thanks to the strong sales growth trend, the industry believes that Novo Nordisk's semaglutide has the strength to sprint to the global "drug king".

In the Chinese market, the three products of semaglutide achieved a total revenue of approximately US$938 million. This accounts for only a small part of its global sales. Among them, the annual sales of the hypoglycemic version of semaglutide injection in China reached 5.762 billion Danish kroner (approximately US$836 million), a year-on-year increase of 22%. The weight loss version of semaglutide injection was only approved for listing by the National Medical Products Administration in June 2024 and officially commercialized in November 2024, with sales of only 196 million Danish kroner (US$28 million). However, Novo Nordisk's obesity care product sales in China (calculated in Danish kroner) increased by 104% year-on-year. The oral version of semaglutide was approved for listing by the National Medical Products Administration in January 2024 for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, and achieved sales of 511 million Danish kroner (US$74 million) in 2024. In January this year, Novo Nordisk announced in Beijing that oral semaglutide tablets were fully launched in China, and the product will be further sold in China. Novo Nordisk is also promoting the weight loss indication of the oral version of semaglutide, which is already in the phase III clinical research stage.

However, the original drug semaglutide will soon face huge challenges in the Chinese market. The core patent of the drug in China, "acylated GLP-1 compounds", will expire on March 20, 2026, and the development of domestic semaglutide biosimilars is accelerating. According to the Insight database, as of February 5, more than 20 domestic semaglutide products have entered the clinical approval and above stage. Among them, 4 products have been applied for listing, from Jiuyuan Gene, Livzon Group, Qilu Pharmaceutical, and United Pharmaceutical, and the first indications are all type 2 diabetes. At the same time, the original drug is also facing patent challenges initiated by domestic companies. Surrounded by wolves, it can be foreseen that the competition for this global single product will be extremely fierce in the future.

For the indication of weight loss, no domestic semaglutide has been reported for production, but there are products under development that have entered Phase III clinical trials. The weight management indication of semaglutide applied for by Federal Biotech (Zhuhai Hengqin), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Federal Pharmaceutical, was approved for clinical trials in April 2023. It is the first company in China to obtain clinical approval for the weight management indication of this biosimilar. And Hanyu Pharmaceutical's semaglutide injection is the first similar drug in China to enter Phase III clinical trials for the indication of weight management. In view of the characteristics of semaglutide, the Drug Review Center of the National Medical Products Administration also issued the "Guidelines for the Design of Clinical Trials for Weight Management Indications of Semaglutide Injection Biosimilars" in October last year to guide the design of clinical trials for weight management indications of semaglutide injection biosimilars in my country.

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