Recently, Jiemian News learned from insiders in the vaccine industry that the total number of influenza vaccines issued in 2024 will be about 80 million doses, and the actual vaccination volume will be about 50 million doses. The initial estimated scrap rate is about 40%.

In fact, since 2018, with the promotion of policies and the improvement of public awareness, the overall number of influenza vaccines issued and vaccinated in my country has shown an upward trend, but the supply growth rate is significantly faster than the vaccination growth rate. That is, a mismatch between supply and demand has occurred.

According to a report in Health Times in January 2018, Feng Zijian, former deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the "2018 Influenza Prevention and Control Work Press Conference" that the national supply market for influenza vaccines is about 26 million doses, and the actual vaccination volume is about more than 20 million doses.

In contrast, the supply of influenza vaccines in 2024 increased by 207.69%, and the actual vaccination volume increased by 150%.

The mismatch between supply and demand has led to a sharp increase in the vaccine scrapping rate. This means that many influenza vaccines that have obtained batch release qualification reports are scrapped every year.

According to the Vaccine Delivery Research and Innovation Laboratory of Duke Kunshan University, "Promoting Vaccination Policies in Multiple Dimensions to Promote the Application of Influenza Vaccines in China", the vaccine scrapping rate has reached 20% to 40% in the past three years (2020 to 2023).

According to the Securities Times website, at the 2024 National Two Sessions, An Kang, a member of the National People's Congress and chairman of Hualan Bio, also stated that the current influenza vaccination rate in my country remains at around 3%, which is far below the world level. It is estimated that only about 60% of the total number of influenza vaccines actually vaccinated nationwide each year will be obtained.

According to data from Feng Zijian, former deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, at the "2018 Influenza Prevention and Control Work Related Situation Press Conference", the influenza vaccine scrapping rate was about 20% at that time. By 2024, this figure has risen to about 40%, doubling.

The emergence of this phenomenon is due to both the deviation of demand forecasting and the lack of coordination in supply, procurement and vaccination implementation.

On March 4, Associate Professor Zhang Can of Duke University's Fuqua School of Business told Jiemian News that unlike conventional vaccines, the demand for influenza vaccines is more uncertain and demand forecasting is more difficult. In addition, due to the diversity of influenza strain variants, manufacturers need to update influenza vaccines every year, which increases the difficulty of production management for manufacturers.

Influenza vaccines are non-immunization program vaccines, and the public's willingness to be vaccinated fluctuates greatly, affected by multiple factors such as the intensity of influenza epidemics, public health awareness, and policy guidance. However, vaccine companies usually need to formulate production plans six months in advance. Once market demand does not match forecasts, production is difficult to adjust, which may lead to vaccine surplus or shortage.

In particular, unlike other vaccines with a validity period of 2 to 3 years, influenza vaccines are usually valid for only one year, and manufacturers cannot store unused vaccines for use in the next year. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends vaccine formulas for different influenza virus strains every year. Manufacturers need to produce according to the latest strain forecasts, so the stock of vaccines from the previous year cannot be used, further exacerbating the increase in the scrap rate.

Mismatches may not only lead to excess scrapping, but also insufficient supply in some years. For example, there was a shortage of influenza vaccines in 2018, and some parts of the country were in urgent need of vaccines.

According to a report by Tencent Finance Prism on November 21, 2018, Liu Peicheng, head of media affairs at vaccine supplier Beijing Kexing, said that manufacturers usually produce influenza vaccines based on market forecasts - the forecast basis for Class I vaccines is mainly based on the number of tenders in various provinces before; Class II vaccines are mainly based on market conditions. Previously, "due to the high scrap loss rate, some companies did not dare to produce on a large scale and would rather have less."

According to Tencent Finance Prism, as of mid-November (that year), the number of influenza vaccines that had obtained marketing approval was only about half of that in 2017. According to data from the China Food and Drug Inspection Institute, which is responsible for mandatory inspection of vaccine products, about 14 million influenza vaccines were approved in 2018, while the number in 2017 was about 29 million.

The influenza vaccine market is highly unpredictable. Even with data analysis and market research, companies still need to find the optimal solution between supply and demand balance and market expansion.

In addition, many vaccine industry practitioners told Jiemian News that the annual demand for influenza vaccines fluctuates greatly, affected by many factors such as consumer willingness to be vaccinated, influenza epidemic trends, and vaccine types. "The influenza vaccine market has cyclical fluctuations of "big years" and "small years". For example, if the influenza outbreak was high in the previous year and the vaccination rate was high, the willingness to be vaccinated may decrease in the next year, and the demand will decrease. Companies often control production in the next year after the influenza year."

They also said that some companies will make more aggressive production plans based on market trends and technological innovations. For example, after the launch of new vaccine technologies (such as nasal spray vaccines and self-vaccination vaccines), some companies may have high expectations for market demand and increase production accordingly. However, companies will eventually refer to past sales data, combine market research and business feedback, and formulate production plans (last year's sales + growth targets + forecasts).

"Influenza vaccines are reported for losses almost every year, and it is difficult to have no losses. If there are zero losses, it means that there are not enough vaccines to sell." They added.

Organizational management problems in the vaccination process may also lead to vaccine waste. According to the "Multi-dimensional Promotion of Vaccination Policies and the Application of Influenza Vaccines in China" by the Vaccine Delivery Research and Innovation Laboratory of Duke Kunshan University, the best time to get a flu vaccine before the epidemic season is the best time. my country's annual vaccination work is concentrated from September to December. At present, the flu vaccine immunization service mainly relies on the children's immunization program immunization clinic. Most vaccination sites only provide flu vaccination for one to two and a half days on weekdays, which is not in line with the concentrated vaccination demand released every year. From the perspective of vaccination services, it leads to supply and demand, and it is difficult to make appointments for vaccination services, resulting in poor accessibility and convenience.

In addition, there is room for improvement in the procurement and allocation of flu vaccines. Since there is no unified national vaccination target and plan, each region may set its own procurement volume based on the situation in the previous year and local experience, which may easily lead to a situation where some regions have insufficient vaccines and some regions have insufficient vaccines.

According to the "Enlightenment of Developed Countries' Experience on the Procurement and Distribution of Non-immunization Vaccines in my country" by the Vaccine Delivery Research and Innovation Laboratory of Duke Kunshan University, at present, influenza vaccines have not been included in regional public health projects or people-friendly vaccination policies in most regions of my country, and bidding and procurement are still carried out in accordance with the general operation of non-immunization program vaccines, that is, the provincial disease control units organize the first selection to form a recommended catalog, and then the district (county) level disease control departments organize the second selection and on-demand procurement. Under this model, the procurement entities are scattered, and residents are voluntarily vaccinated at their own expense. Affected by multiple factors such as seasonal epidemic trends, residents' health awareness, and self-paid vaccine costs, the vaccination demand fluctuates greatly from year to year, which brings challenges to the supply of vaccine manufacturers and the implementation of immunization by disease control departments.

Zhang Can said that there are some reference practices for the uncertainty of influenza vaccine demand internationally.

For example, the Canadian government has adopted a long-term contract strategy to reduce the risks brought by the uncertainty of influenza vaccine demand. The procurement and distribution of influenza vaccines are coordinated by the federal, provincial and territorial health departments in Canada. Each year, these relevant agencies need to estimate the demand for vaccines for the next influenza season based on past experience, influenza season forecasts and immunization programs. In order to reduce the risk of manufacturers, the Canadian government signs long-term contracts with manufacturers. For example, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has been one of Canada's influenza vaccine suppliers since 2001; in July 2022, the Canadian government renewed its influenza vaccine supply contract with GSK for an initial period of four years and then five years. The terms of the contract include that if an influenza pandemic occurs, the government can purchase up to 80 million doses of vaccine; at the same time, the contract also ensures that no less than 4 million doses of seasonal influenza vaccine will be purchased annually at the expense of the public finances. In rare cases, when vaccine supply is in short supply, the Public Health Agency will take the lead in coordinating with local health departments to ensure that the vaccine shortage challenge is quickly resolved by allocating inventory, additional purchases from manufacturers, and coordinating centralized procurement with the PSPC.

At the same time, if there are two manufacturers who win the bid, the Canadian government will generally allocate the purchase volume based on the price difference between the two winning manufacturers. For example, in the 2019 rabies vaccine procurement contract, if the price difference between the two manufacturers is 20% or less, the manufacturer with the lowest price can guarantee 60% of the total purchase volume; if the price difference is above 20% and below 30%, the manufacturer with the lowest price can guarantee 65% of the total volume; if the price difference is between 30% and 40% or less, the manufacturer with the lowest price can guarantee 70% of the total volume. The greater the price difference between the two lowest-priced bidders, the higher the quantity awarded to the lowest-priced bidder.

https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202503043335964137.html