Bivalent HPV is hit hard! Wantai Biopharmaceuticals’ vaccine volume and price both fell, betting on nine-valent may become the last trump card

May 30, 2025  Source: drugdu 88

"/In the past two years, Wantai Bio 's performance data has fallen off a cliff, hitting a new low since its listing. The once "star enterprise" of vaccines is experiencing the most severe performance winter in history.
The core driver of the sharp drop in performance is the "big decline" in the vaccine business. Wantai Biological , which once seized the market with the first domestically produced bivalent HPV vaccine "Xinkening" , is now facing the impact of the entry of competitors such as Watson Biological and the expansion of the age range of Merck's nine-valent vaccine squeezing the market.
Faced with difficulties, Wantai Biopharmaceuticals is pinning its hopes on the nine-valent HPV vaccine, which has not yet been approved for marketing. However, this vaccine, which is planned to be a "blockbuster product", will have to face dual competition from Merck's "Gardasil 9" (which already covers men) and Watson Biopharmaceuticals after it is launched .
Performance hits a record low
The financial report shows that Wantai Bio's operating income in 2024 was 2.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.25%. In 2023, its operating income was 5.511 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.73%.
Not only that, the company's profit figures are even worse.
In 2024, Wantai Bio's net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 106 million yuan, down 91.49% year-on-year, the lowest level since the company went public; net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -186 million yuan, down 117.29% year-on-year. In 2023, its net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 1.248 billion yuan, down 73.65% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.078 billion yuan, down 62.79% year-on-year.
The company continued to decline in the first quarter of 2025, with operating income of approximately RMB 400 million, a year-on-year decrease of 46.76%. In terms of profit, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB -52.78 million, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 141.98%. The profit was RMB 126 million in the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 105 million, a year-on-year decrease of 313.18%.
At the same time, Wantai Bio's net cash outflow from operating activities in the first quarter of this year was about 86 million yuan, a sharp drop of 1026.40% year-on-year. The company said that this was mainly due to the decline in product sales and the decrease in cash received from the sale of goods.
The main reason for the decline in performance was that Wantai Biological's vaccine segment revenue plummeted by more than 80%.
According to the company's disclosure, in 2024, the company's vaccine division achieved operating income of 606 million yuan, operating costs of 179 million yuan, and a gross profit margin of 70.43%. Compared with the same period last year, the revenue of the vaccine segment decreased by 84.69%, the cost decreased by 46.08%, and the gross profit margin decreased by 21.17 percentage points. At the same time, Wantai Biological's vaccine products saw a sharp decline in production and sales in 2024. Data shows that in 2024, Wantai Biological's vaccine production volume was 10.59 million doses, a year-on-year decrease of 64.66%; sales volume was 9.0492 million doses, a year-on-year decrease of 42.4%.
Data shows that Wantai Bio's bivalent HPV vaccine "Xinkening" was the first domestically produced HPV vaccine to be launched in China. Its sales grew rapidly in the early stage of its launch in 2020, bringing considerable revenue to the company. However, with the intensification of market competition, especially the approval of Watson Bio 's bivalent HPV vaccine "Wozehui" in March 2022, and the expansion of Merck 's nine-valent HPV vaccine to women aged 9-45, the market share of bivalent HPV vaccines has shrunk rapidly.
In addition, the HPV vaccine market as a whole will face the impact of price wars in 2024. Under the dual pressure of government procurement and market competition, the price of bivalent HPV vaccine has been significantly reduced. Although Wantai Bio has maintained a certain growth in the in vitro diagnostics sector, the decline in revenue in the vaccine sector has directly dragged down the overall performance.
Despite the pressure on the domestic market, Wantai Bio has made some progress in the international market. Its bivalent HPV vaccine has entered the expanded immunization program in Thailand, Nepal, Nicaragua, Angola and other countries and achieved sales. However, overall, the international market cannot make up for the decline in domestic sales.
The profitability of future flagship products is questionable
One of the reasons for the shrinking profits is the company's continuous investment in the nine-valent HPV vaccine.
In 2024, Wantai Bio's total R&D investment in the nine-valent HPV vaccine reached 283 million yuan, down 6.18% from the same period last year. Among them, the expense amount was 183 million yuan, the capitalized amount was about 100 million yuan, and the R&D investment accounted for 12.65% of the operating income.
In addition, Wind data shows that by the end of 2024, the company's nine-valent HPV vaccine phase II expansion construction project had invested 590 million yuan, accounting for 47% of the total project amount.
At present, Wantai Bio seems to have placed its bets on the "9-valent HPV vaccine". In its annual report, it stated: The company has integrated R&D resources and concentrated its superior resources on developing vaccine products. On the basis of the 9-valent HPV vaccine as its superior product, it has actively expanded other high-value vaccine products, accelerated product innovation, and is committed to creating a rich and orderly product pipeline to cope with fierce market competition and meet growing market demand.
However, there is a certain contradiction between Wantai Bio's poor performance and the high capital demand in the development and industrialization process of this vaccine.
Not only that, Wantai Biological's nine-valent HPV vaccine may also be at risk of being preempted by competitors in the market.
Although Wantai Bio has repeatedly stressed that the application for the listing of the nine-valent HPV vaccine is proceeding as planned, it has not yet received formal approval from the National Medical Products Administration. Therefore, the company's nine-valent HPV vaccine may face fierce market competition after it is listed.
An unnamed analyst told the China Times that Merck's nine-valent HPV vaccine "Gardasil 9" has been approved for male indications in China and has a dominant position in the high-end medical market. In addition, once Watson Bio's nine-valent HPV vaccine is launched, it will also become an important competitor of Wantai Bio. The domestic HPV vaccine market has entered a tiered competition stage, with high-priced vaccines (such as nine-valent) still in the blue ocean market, while low-priced vaccines (such as two-valent) have entered the red ocean competition state.
On the one hand, performance has plummeted and cash flow is under pressure, and on the other hand, there is a high capital demand for the research and development and expansion of the nine-valent vaccine. Can Wantai Biological reverse the downward trend?

https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202505293418033262.html

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