The domestic herpes zoster vaccine market is about to enter the "Three Kingdoms Killing".

On the evening of February 9, Green Bamboo Bio (02480.HK) announced that its application for listing of the recombinant herpes zoster vaccine LZ901 was accepted by the National Medical Products Administration.

If successfully listed, this vaccine will become the third herpes zoster vaccine listed in China.

Currently, there are two herpes zoster vaccines on the market, one is a domestic vaccine, the manufacturer is Baike Bio; the other is an imported vaccine, the manufacturer is GlaxoSmithKline.

Herpes zoster is an infectious skin disease caused by the reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus that has been latent in the dorsal root ganglia or cranial ganglia of the spinal cord for a long time. As people age, their physiological metabolic and immune functions gradually decline, and the risk of contracting infectious diseases such as herpes zoster increases. Vaccination with the herpes zoster vaccine is an effective measure to prevent herpes zoster. As China's population aging process accelerates, the herpes zoster vaccine market is seen as having a promising future.

However, judging from the two herpes zoster vaccines that have been launched in China, it is still not easy to open up the vaccination market for middle-aged and elderly people.

The herpes zoster vaccine of Beike Bio was approved for domestic listing in January 2023. That year, the vaccine once doubled the company's performance growth rate, but this highlight lasted only one year.

The 2024 performance forecast released by Beike Bio recently showed that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in 2024 is expected to decrease by 52.10% to 60.08% year-on-year. The company explained that due to factors such as the reduced willingness of the public to be vaccinated and the reduction in market demand, the sales and use of the company's herpes zoster live attenuated vaccine were greatly affected, resulting in a decrease in the number of vaccinations and shipments, and a year-on-year decline in operating income and net profit.

In the global vaccine market, GlaxoSmithKline's shingles vaccine is one of the major varieties. In 2024, GlaxoSmithKline's shingles vaccine global sales reached 3.364 billion pounds, a year-on-year increase of 1%. However, GlaxoSmithKline revealed that sales of this vaccine in China have declined.

As a latecomer, Green Bamboo Bio's shingles vaccine attempts to form differentiated competition. Specifically, although Green Bamboo Bio's shingles vaccine is aimed at people aged 40 and above, just like Baike Bio, the vaccine technology route is different. It takes the recombinant technology route, and the vaccine protection rate may be better than Baike Bio's shingles live attenuated vaccine.

GlaxoSmithKline's shingles vaccine is also a recombinant vaccine, but it is aimed at people over 50 years old. In comparison, Green Bamboo Bio's shingles vaccine has more people aged 40 to 49. In addition, the price after listing may be lower than GlaxoSmithKline's shingles vaccine.

However, how to jointly expand the market share of China's shingles vaccine is still a problem that vaccine companies need to solve.

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