Influenza activity in China has recently entered a phase of rapid growth. The latest data from the Chinese National Influenza Center indicates that during November 10-16, 2025, the proportion of influenza-like illness cases reported by sentinel hospitals in southern provinces reached 6.7% of all outpatient and emergency visits. This represents an increase from the 5.5% recorded the previous week and also surpasses levels observed during the corresponding periods from 2022 to 2024. More recent reports show that the ILI proportion in northern sentinel hospitals has reached as high as 12%, two to three times higher than levels seen during the same periods from 2020 to 2023. Since November, the National Disease Control and Prevention Administration has issued three consecutive "Influenza Orange Alerts," predicting the peak of this wave will occur between mid-to-late December this year and early January next year.

The high incidence relates to this year's circulating strains. Laboratory monitoring results show the currently predominant viral strains are influenza A(H3N2), coexisting with influenza B(Victoria lineage) and influenza A(H1N1). Significant antigenic variation has been observed, rendering the general population susceptible. The H3N2 subtype particularly manifests with severe respiratory symptoms such as intense coughing and nasal congestion, demonstrates a higher fever rate, and is more likely to cause complications including pneumonia.

Rising Demand for Antiviral Medications and Market Response

With the outbreak's rapid spread, demand for anti-influenza drugs and related testing services has warmed significantly. According to CCTV reports, oseltamivir sales surged 237% over one week, while baloxavir marboxil sales increased by 180%. Data from platforms including Meituan, AliHealth, and JD indicate that since November, orders for specific influenza A and B medications have generally doubled, with increases exceeding 150% in some northern cities like Harbin and Hohhot. Against this backdrop, relevant listed pharmaceutical companies are attracting renewed market attention.

Beyond the "duopoly" of hecpharm and Roche, several domestic pharmaceutical companies with influenza treatment products are accelerating their market entry. Among them, Sinopep (688076.SH), Kanion Pharma (600557.SH), and Jdkbio (688670.SH) are becoming new market focal points, leveraging their respective technological accumulation and product portfolios in the antiviral field.

Specifically, therapeutics represented by oseltamivir and baloxavir marboxil constitute the mainstream choices for current influenza treatment. Related reports note that the surge in medication demand has depleted stocks of relevant drugs, particularly originator products, in some pharmacies.

Detailed Company Positioning and Market Performance

Nuotai Bio: A competitive participant in the oseltamivir sector, Sinopep is a high-tech enterprise specializing in peptide and small molecule drug R&D and production. The company has actively expanded its integrated API and formulation business in recent years, with oseltamivir being a significant product. The company recently indicated via investor interaction platforms that it has obtained drug registration certificates for three oseltamivir phosphate dosage forms: capsules, granules, and dry suspension. Amid the current national influenza surge, its oseltamivir production lines are actively and systematically operational, working at full capacity to ensure supply. Channel feedback has been positive; according to JD.com sales rankings, Sinopep's Oseltamivir Phosphate Capsules consistently rank within the top three on the platform's oral flu medication bestseller list, recently surpassing Roche's originator drug (Tamiflu) and Hecpharm's Oseltamivir Phosphate Granules (Kewei) to claim the top position. In an environment where online channels have become a core front for anti-influenza drug sales volume, companies with differentiated product and channel deployment advantages are positioned to stand out.

Beyond influenza therapeutics, Sinopep's active developments in peptides and small nucleic acids warrant attention. As one of China's earliest entrants into peptide synthesis, utilizing its "solid-liquid fusion" technology, the company has achieved 10-kilogram scale single-batch production for GLP-1 class APIs like semaglutide, tirzepatide, and liraglutide, with purity and yield rates leading the industry. In 2024, its tirzepatide API was among the first globally to secure an FDA DMF filing. Furthermore, in the oligonucleotide sector, Sinopep Bio strategically entered in 2022, has undertaken several significant oligonucleotide CDMO projects, and established collaborations with international innovative pharmaceutical companies like Incyte and Gilead, suggesting promising development prospects.

Kanion Pharma: Alongside the rapid sales growth of oseltamivir and baloxavir, anti-infective traditional Chinese medicines are also gaining market focus. As a leading enterprise in China's TCM anti-infective field, Kanion Pharma has long concentrated on treating viral infectious diseases. Its antiviral/influenza products, Reduning Injection and Jinzhen Oral Liquid, experienced significant sales increases during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company previously stated that "Reduning Injection can rapidly alleviate symptoms of viral infectious diseases, demonstrating notable efficacy against fever, particularly high fever episodes; Jinzhen Oral Liquid can inhibit influenza viruses H1N1 and H3N2, and combined with oseltamivir, can enhance clinical cure rates and shorten disease duration." Although Kanion Pharma's overall revenue declined in the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from oral liquid products, represented by Jinzhen Oral Liquid, reached RMB 1.359 billion, accounting for 58% of total revenue and becoming its most stable growth driver. With recovering medication demand during the flu season, both Reduning and Jinzhen have potential to release incremental demand in primary healthcare and household stockpiling scenarios.

Jdkbio: Differing from oral antivirals, Jdkbio focuses on the prevention side. It is one of the few domestic companies capable of mass-producing quadrivalent influenza split vaccines, covering populations aged 6 months and above, with an annual production capacity of 20 million doses. Its influenza vaccine has been consistently included in the national immunization program procurement catalog for years, maintaining a stable share within the CDC system.

Market Transition and Future Prospects

Presently, China's anti-influenza drug market is shifting from a phase of "oseltamivir supremacy" towards a new stage where "traditional and innovative drugs operate in parallel." Besides the aforementioned companies, new drugs such as Qingfeng Pharma's maxulaxavir, Zhong Sheng Pharma's angladivir, and Jumpcan Pharma's maxeloxavir gained approval in 2025, signaling the formal entry of domestic innovative drugs. Against this backdrop of "a hundred flowers blooming," companies possessing differentiated advantages, stable supply chains, and robust online and offline channel capabilities are better positioned to highlight their market value. Among these, upstream enterprises deeply embedded within the global antiviral drug industry chain, like Sinopep, may demonstrate considerable resilience during cycles of surging demand.

As the influenza peak approaches, this outbreak-driven "medication safeguard campaign" is opening new growth windows for domestic pharmaceutical companies.

Reference：https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202511303578454620.html