GLP-1 drugs have lived up to expectations and delivered an unexpected result in 2024, with a global market size of 51.8 billion US dollars. The two giant single products, Simeglutide and Tilpotide, continue to soar, with strong growth beyond imagination.

Starting from 2022, GLP-1 drugs began to show explosive potential, with a market size exceeding the $20 billion threshold that year, followed by nearly $35 billion in revenue in 2023, and now breaking through $50 billion in one fell swoop, achieving a triple leap in three years and aiming to reach $60 billion by 2025.

In terms of market share, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly shine brightly, with the former holding a market share of around 58% and the latter occupying the remaining share. The sales of products developed by other GLP-1 players have declined.

From a numerical perspective alone, the GLP-1 market is already comparable to the PD - (L) 1 market. According to the disclosed 2024 financial report, the total revenue of PD - (L) 1 products under six companies including Merck, BMS, and AstraZeneca is around 49.5 billion US dollars, and it is estimated that the remaining PD - (L) 1 products will contribute approximately 2-3 billion US dollars, with a total size of around 52 billion US dollars.

That is to say, the current market size of GLP-1 products and PD - (L) 1 products is already equal, and it is highly likely that they will surpass each other in the future. After all, the growth rate of GLP-1 products is still significantly higher than that of PD - (L) 1 products, with the most representative being the sales of semaglutide and K drugs.

In 2024, the total revenue of Ozempic, Rybelsus, and Wegovy's semaglutide products was $29.296 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38% from $21.201 billion in 2023. The sales revenue of K Medicine in 2024 is 21.201 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 18% compared to 25.011 billion US dollars in 2023. Based on past growth trends, it is highly likely that the next "Medicine King" will be won by semaglutide.

The brilliant achievements of semaglutide also demonstrate Novo Nordisk's strategic planning, with two core development strategies being effective: on the one hand, dosage form upgrading, combining subcutaneous injection and oral administration, providing patients with more treatment options and a better treatment experience; On the other hand, it is necessary to boldly expand the indications and deeply explore their clinical value. After being approved for type 2 diabetes, Smeglutide has set off a great upsurge of weight loss. It also has the effect of reducing the risk of cardiovascular events and treating kidney disease. The two major indications of heart failure and MASH also need to be unlocked.

In addition, higher dose specification versions are being developed vigorously. The oral semaglutide 25mg for weight loss will be declared for market this year, and two weight loss related phase IIIb studies (STEP UP and STEP UP T2D) with subcutaneous injection of semaglutide 7.2mg have also been successful. These important breakthroughs will create greater commercial value for semaglutide.

Of course, the strong expansion of the GLP-1 market is also supported by the use of tiltrotide, and its peak confrontation with semaglutide is highly anticipated.

Although Tilpotide takes about 4 and a half years to market at night compared to semaglutide, it still exhibits astonishing explosive power. In just six months of its launch in 2022, it earned $483 million in revenue. After being approved for weight loss indications in 2023, it earned $5.339 billion in revenue. In 2024, it surged to $16.466 billion and took the lead in obtaining indications for obstructive sleep apnea at the end of the year.

In the fierce competition, Eli Lilly also fought for many key opportunities for Tilpotide. Firstly, through multiple Phase III studies, it has been demonstrated head to head that teriparatide is superior to semaglutide in terms of its hypoglycemic and weight loss effects, especially the success of the SURMUNT-5 study in 2024, which will greatly assist in the subsequent penetration of teriparatide into the weight loss market.

Secondly, in the competition for indications for heart failure, tilpotide is expected to overtake and obtain FDA approval earlier this year.

The third is to solve the production capacity dilemma. In October 2024, tilpotide has been removed from the FDA's list of drug shortages, while semaglutide is still classified as a shortage by the FDA. Undoubtedly, the supply of production capacity will also affect the market sales of the two products.

Overall, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have become big winners in the vast GLP-1 market. As for whether there will be a reversal in the ranking of the two in the future, it depends not only on the market performance of existing products, but also on the launch of the next generation of products, such as the new generation of compound preparation CagriSema and oral small molecule orforglipron.

Source: https://pharm.jgvogel.cn/c1486729.shtml