Follow the incremental policy and grasp the incremental rhythm. At this stage and for a long time in the future, innovative drugs are the most clear direction of incremental policy support. We continue to be optimistic about high-quality innovative pharmaceutical companies and transformation companies that have achieved results.

Innovative drugs are expected to accelerate into hospitals, and the Class C medical insurance catalogue is about to be released. The new version of the medical insurance catalogue will be implemented from January 2025, and many newly included blockbuster innovative drugs will speed up their entry into hospitals under the promotion of the implementation details. The 2025 medical insurance negotiations will be reported in advance on April 1, and the medical insurance negotiations will end in September, which will help the newly approved products to be included in the medical insurance faster. The first version of the Class C catalog is expected to be released in 2025. The settlement price of Class C medical insurance catalog drugs will be negotiated by the Medical Insurance Bureau, pharmaceutical companies and commercial insurance companies. It is expected that it will mainly include innovative products with high degree of innovation that cannot be afforded by the Class B catalog, which is expected to benefit innovative drugs that are still outside the basic medical insurance system. The development of commercial insurance is expected to usher in new opportunities.

Chemical drug centralized procurement has become normalized, the centralized procurement of traditional Chinese medicines has accelerated and expanded, and the centralized procurement of biosimilars is about to break the ice. ① Chemical generic drugs: The results of the tenth batch of chemical drug centralized procurement will be implemented in April 2025. The competition intensity of this centralized procurement is high, and the price reduction of many drugs is large. In addition, there are changes in this round of rules, which may promote further intensification of subsequent centralized procurement competition and stricter supervision of quality control. ② Traditional Chinese medicine: At the end of 2024, Hubei Province led the national joint procurement of traditional Chinese medicines, which has been opened for bidding. It is expected to be implemented in April 2025. The average reduction is slightly higher than expected, and the progress is relatively fast. The formal document for the centralized procurement of traditional Chinese medicines in Anhui Province was released in January 2025, and it is expected to be opened in the first half of 25. The rules for centralized procurement of Chinese patent medicines are gradually becoming clearer, and the evaluation system is becoming more and more perfect. It is expected to accelerate and expand in 2025. ③ Biosimilars: The Anhui Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau issued a document to lead the 2025 national biological drug alliance centralized procurement, which may include biosimilars. Although the development of biosimilars in my country is relatively late, there are more than 5 manufacturers in some categories, and the competition landscape is gradually maturing. Some provinces and cities have previously conducted centralized procurement pilots. It is expected that some biosimilars with relatively sufficient competitive landscape may be included in the centralized procurement in 2025. Considering that the competitive landscape is better than that of chemical generic drugs, the overall decline is expected to be relatively mild.

The normalization of centralized procurement of equipment is promoted, and the bidding of medical equipment continues to recover. ① High-value consumables: The follow-up procurement of the inter-provincial alliance centralized procurement of physiological products is expected to be carried out in 25Q1 or 25Q2. The overall centralized procurement rules are predictable and the marginal impact is decreasing. It is expected that the National Medical Insurance Bureau will deploy specific centralized procurement varieties for 2025 in 2025Q1 or Q2, and the relevant centralized procurement is expected to be gradually carried out in 2025H2. ②IVD: The centralized procurement of biochemical renal function, immune infectious diseases, and hormone luminescence will be implemented in 24H2. The centralized procurement of biochemical sugar metabolism and immune tumor marker thyroid function will be opened at the end of 24 and is expected to be implemented in 25. In addition, the price regulation of medical services for inspections continues to advance. ③Medical equipment: Since September 2024, the bidding of medical equipment has improved significantly, and the bidding scale has increased by 37% in December. It is expected that with the resumption of regular procurement and the implementation of equipment updates, equipment bidding is expected to gradually improve in 2025.

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