A new study has revealed that a new dementia risk score ‘calculator’ can strongly predict the chances of people developing dementia within the next 14 years.

Based on 11 mostly modifiable risk factors in people in the middle stages of life and onwards, the UK Biobank Dementia Risk Score (UKBDRS) outperformed three additional widely used risk sources, according to the results from the study published in the British Medical Journal.

Around 50 million people are thought to be living with dementia worldwide, with numbers expected to triple by 2050.

Targeting key risk factors could potentially avert around 40% of dementia cases, and various risk scores have been devised to predict a person’s chances of developing the disease while preventive measures are still possible.

However, these scores have been shown to be unreliable across different age groups and geographies, and some are reliant on expensive and invasive tests.

After analysing two large groups of adults aged 50 to 73 years participating in two long-term studies – the UK Biobank study developing the new risk score and the Whitehall II study validating the score – the researchers found 11 predictive factors for any type of dementia.

The predicted factors included age, education, a history of diabetes and stroke, and/or current depression, parental dementia, economic disadvantage, high blood pressure, living alone and male sex.

A known risk factor for dementia, the APOE gene, which is involved in the production of a protein to help carry cholesterol and other types of fat in the bloodstream, was also added to the risk score.

According to the study, within 14 years, nearly 2% and 3% of participants developed dementia in the UK Biobank and Whitehall II groups, respectively.

"The UKBDRS may best be used as an initial screening tool to stratify people into risk groups, and those identified as high-risk could then benefit from the more time-intensive follow-up assessments," said lead author, Dr Raihaan Patel.

However, Patel added that "many steps" will be needed before the calculator can be used in clinical practice.

Recognising various limits, according to the lead co-author of the study, associate professor Sana Suri, the risk score "doesn’t represent a definitive outcome" and accuracy could be improved with cognitive testing, a brain scan, and blood testing for neurodegenerative indicators.

Dr Richard Oakley, associate director of research and innovation at the Alzheimer’s Society, hopes "it will soon help identify people in mid-life who are at greater risk of developing dementia so they can make changes to their lifestyle to try to reduce that risk".

https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/new_dementia_risk_score_calculator_shown_to_strongly_identify_disease_risk_1496851